Eight out of ten Chartered Financial Analyst Romania (CFA) Romania analysts say that the EUR/RON average exchange rate will reach RON 4,71 in the next six months and RON 4,75 in April 2019.
Around 80 percent of analysts of the Chartered Financial Analyst Romania (CFA) are forecasting that the local currency will lose ground against the EUR in the next 12 months, compared to the current value. Thus, the average value of forecasts for the next six months stands at RON 4.7106 for 1 EUR (average value 4.7000), while for the next 12 months the average value of the forecasted exchange rate is RON 4.7540 for 1 EUR. The anticipated inflation rate for the next 12 months (April 2018 – April 2019) recorded a value of 4.55 percent (the average value recorded is 4.5 percent).
Those surveyed expressed expectations for the increase of the interest rates against the current values for the RON for both short-term (3 months) and medium-term (5 years), with 96 percent and 92 percent of participants to the survey anticipating this evolution. Thus, the average ROBOR rate with a maturity of 3 months over 12 months is 3.20 percent (average 3.00 percent), and the return on sovereign bonds denominated in MDLs with a maturity of 5 years is 4.84 percent (median 4 , 80 percent ). As a result, for the short-term maturities, negative real interest are anticipated.
In April 2018, the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of CFA Romania increased by 1.9 points to 49.5 points compared to the previous month (year-on-year, the indicator decreased by 11.3 points). This development was due to both components of the Indicator. Thus, the current conditions indicator increased by 2.2 points to 66.4 points (compared to the same month of the previous year, the indicator of current conditions decreased by 9.6 points). The expectations indicator rose by 1.7 points to 41.4 points (compared to the same month of the previous year, the indicator of anticipation decreased by 12.1 points).
There are over 150,000 CFA analysts in the world right now, most of whom are affiliated with the over 148 member companies of the CFA Institute.